Before digging in, it’s important to clarify a point about the data. The USDA reports per capita meat disappearance. This metric is the residual of production, beginning and ending inventories, import, and export data. So while the USDA does not explicitly measure consumption, they do offer a proxy measure in the form of disappearances – which is essentially consumption. When discussing consumption in this post, we are truly reporting the USDA’s reported meat disappearances. These data have been reported since 1970 and the USDA’s WASDE report provides forecasts for 2016 and 2017. Since 1970, total red meat and poultry consumption has averaged 204 pounds per capita. Overall, consumption has trended higher as levels were generally less than 200 pounds prior to 1990 and have generally exceeded 200 pounds since 1990. Between 2004 and 2007 consumption peaked and remained at 222 pounds.
After 2007, total consumption fell as low as 202 pounds in 2014, a 9% total decline. The impacts of the Great Recession and generally strong meat prices – as a result of limited supplies – certainly took a measurable impact.Since 2014, total consumption has turned higher. For 2016, per capita total red meat and poultry consumption is forecast at 215 pounds with even more increases expected into 2017 (218 pounds). If these estimates come to fruition, U.S. per capita meat consumption in 2016 would be at the highest levels in 8 years.
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